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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your squad in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the largest turnaround wins the prize. However, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the most shocking shock.

However the current race is distinctly unique. The pool of candidates is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with reigning conference winners declining and longtime strugglers rising collectively. Under an typical season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and fun season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been capable to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a typical year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet the current isn't a typical campaign!

Where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term winning. However Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has regressed after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still